Conditional Probability Math Example 4

Follow the full solution, then compare it with the other examples linked below.

Example 4

hard
A jar contains 66 red marbles and 44 blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement. Given that at least one marble is blue, what is the probability both marbles are blue?

Solution

  1. 1
    Use P(both blueat least one blue)=P(both blue)P(at least one blue)P(\text{both blue} \mid \text{at least one blue}) = \frac{P(\text{both blue})}{P(\text{at least one blue})}.
  2. 2
    Count unordered pairs: total pairs =(102)=45= \binom{10}{2} = 45.
  3. 3
    Both blue pairs: (42)=6\binom{4}{2} = 6.
  4. 4
    At least one blue pair = total pairs - both red pairs =45(62)=4515=30= 45 - \binom{6}{2} = 45 - 15 = 30.
  5. 5
    So the conditional probability is 630=15\frac{6}{30} = \frac{1}{5}.

Answer

P=15P = \frac{1}{5}
Conditioning reduces the sample space. Once outcomes with no blue marbles are excluded, only the remaining valid pairs matter.

About Conditional Probability

The conditional probability P(AB)P(A|B) is the probability of event AA occurring given that event BB has already occurred.

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