Example 1 — Is the die fair?
EasyProblem
A die is rolled 600 times; face counts are 90, 110, 105, 95, 100, 100. Test goodness of fit to a fair die at .
Solution
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Data are counts in 6 categories compared to an expected fair distribution — a chi-square goodness-of-fit test.
Name the structure before touching arithmetic — that is what makes the right method obvious.
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Ask the recognition question: Are the data counts of cases falling into categories, being compared to expected counts (rather than means or continuous values)?
If the answer is yes, the concept applies; the cue, not a keyword, decides the method.
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Expected each face ; compute .
The rule is chosen only after the structure matches, so the steps mean something.
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, with .
Keep units, shape, or answer form tied to the story so the work does not become symbol pushing.
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Check the answer against the original question.
It should fit the mental model — how far are the counts from what we expected. If it does not, revisit the recognition step before changing the arithmetic.
Answer
, p-value large, fail to reject — die looks fair
Takeaway: Sum the scaled squared gaps; a small means observed counts are close to expected.